Restaurant spending holds steady in tough climate; Consumer confidence improves; Mortgage applications rise

U.S. restaurant spending appears to be holding up despite an onslaught of rising consumer prices and escalating use of weight-loss drugs now curbing Americans’ cravings for convenient comfort food, according to the National Restaurant Association.

The trade group’s latest second-quarter household survey found resilience among consumers facing continued financial strains, with more than a third of respondents, 35%, noting they spend more than they earn in most months. Still, restaurants remain the “top discretionary purchase,” with 56% reporting they dined at a restaurant in the prior week, 50% ordered takeout and delivery, and 39% purchased a coffee or snack.

“Dining frequency increased modestly, with the share eating out rising 4 percentage points from the first quarter, while coffee and snack purchases edged down by 2 points,” the restaurant group said in a report this month.

In a separate May report, the group said its surveys found one in eight adults are currently taking some type of GLP-1 medication under brands like Ozempic and Mounjaro. There is so far no evidence that the drugs are causing a pullback in restaurant visits, though that could change in the months ahead as drug adoption and insurance coverage expands.

“Despite smaller appetites, GLP-1 users remain highly active restaurant customers, suggesting that while how they order may be evolving, their reliance on and interest in restaurants is not diminishing,” the group said in a statement.

The Commerce Department’s latest data showed spending at U.S. food and drinking places topped $388 billion in the first four months of 2026, rising 3.5% from the year-earlier period despite lingering pressures facing restaurant operators.

U.S. consumer confidence improved slightly in the latest June survey by the University of Michigan, though pessimism persists amid high costs for gasoline and other expenses. Based on several metrics, preliminary figures showed June sentiment posting at 48.9, up from May’s 44.8 but well below the 60.7 score for June 2025.

“Overall, assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose this month,” Joanne Hsu, the university’s director of consumer surveys, said in a statement. “Even with June’s early gains, however, views of the economy are still relatively dour.”

Interviews for the latest survey were conducted between May 19 and June 8. Hsu said consumers “feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run.”

The volume of mortgage applications for the week ended June 5 increased 10.8% from the prior week, according to the latest national lender survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications were up 4% from the comparable week of 2025, with refinance applications rising 20% from a year earlier.

This occurred even as average mortgage rates have been trending upward since dipping below 6% in late February. Housing finance agency Freddie Mac reported 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaging 6.52% for the week ended June 11, up from 5.48% in the previous week but below the year-earlier average of 6.84%.

Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the banker group, said news from the Middle East drove financial markets and kept mortgage rates volatile in the early days of June. But borrowers were able to find loans offered at rates somewhat lower than recent averages, as refinance applications rose 15% from the Memorial Day holiday week and purchase applications increased 7%, Fratantoni said in a statement.